After the plunge in early August, the stock price of the American Artificial Intelligence Company rebounded violently.

On August 5th, Nvidia's stock price was about 100 yuan/share, and August 28 closed at $ 128.3/share.Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Apple US stocks fell below $ 400/share, $ 160/share, $ 480/share, $ 210/share on August 5, respectively.Stock, $ 519.1/share, $ 228.03/share.

The concept of artificial intelligence in the US stocks continued to be hot, but some cattle people left their luggage.Buffett's Apple's stock has been sold halfway, and Berkshire's cash reserves have reached a record high.As the vane of the global artificial intelligence industry, Nvidia has continued to reduce its holdings in the past three months, and the cash -cherished Nvidia stock value has a total value of about 520 million US dollars.

David Roche, a senior US strategist, predicts that in 2025, US stocks will have a bear market (falling or 20%), one of the reasons for artificial intelligence bubbles.

Is there any bubble in artificial intelligence?Mumbai Investment

The stock price in the concept of artificial intelligence shows the most powerful performance.On June 7, the last trading day before the "one demolition ten" stock demolition at the beginning of this year, Nvidia's stock price rose 144.12%during the year, which was more than 7 times compared with early 2023.The high stock price of Nvidia appeared in mid -June, with a stock price of US $ 135.58 per share, with a market value of US $ 3.335 trillion.The other six of the "Seven Sisters in Technology Stocks" have also appeared in the high stock price from mid-June to mid-July during the year. Microsoft's stock price exceeds $ 460/share, Apple exceeds $ 230/share, and Alphabet -A Super 190USD/share, Meta over $ 530/share, Amazon over $ 200/share, Tesla over $ 260/share.

From the perspective of static P / E ratio PE (Lyr), the Google PE (LYR) in the past 5 fiscal year decreased from 30.05 in fiscal 2019 to 29.15 in fiscal 2023. Amazon caused negative value due to losses in 2022.Back to Zhengzheng, Apple PE (Lyr) rose from 16.61 to 26.82, Microsoft rose from 39.33 to 45.91, Meta rose from 26.47 to 39.21, AMD rose from 152.6 to 180.41, and Nvidia rose from 37.02 to 345.12.Among them, Nvidia's latest fiscal year is the highest in the past five years.For companies that have fluctuated by AMD, META, Google, Apple, and Microsoft, PE (LYR) in the latest fiscal year is not the highest in the past 5 years, which means that these stocks have been highSigns of estimation.

Qu Shaojie, Assistant General Manager of the Great Wall Fund International Business Department and QDII Fund Manager of the Great Wall Great Wall, believes that head technology stocks are overestimated to be driven by market outlook.At the early stage, the general law of the US technology leaders is that the price -earnings ratio is about 30 times."In the previous high point, the price -earnings ratio exceeded the average price -earnings ratio, with 0.7 times the standard deviation, which is slightly overvalued. After the recent return, the P / E ratio has returned to an average of about 25 times, which is the 0.5 times standard deviation, which is already healthier." Qu Shaojie said.He told reporters that the price -earnings ratio is an important valuation indicator for judging whether there is a bubble. The P / E ratio is compared with the historical average on the one hand.Condition.More importantly, the price -earnings ratio needs to match the growth rate of the next year and years. The higher the expected growth rate in the future, the price -earnings ratio may be higher.

Judging from the logic of funds injected with US stock technology stocks, Zhang Chi, chairman of Beijing Xinding Rongsheng Capital Management Co., Ltd., said that the stock price may not have an inevitable relationship between the rise and fall of the operating data.The background of the rising stock price of US stock technology stocks is the role of US dollar interest rate hike. A large amount of funds worldwide are in the United StatesLucknow Investment. A large part of these money has accumulated in the "Seven Sisters of Technology".Stir fry and take over each other.The market value and transaction volume of these seven stocks account for a large proportion of US stocks, so the plunge of any stock will cause a major plunge in US stocks.

Zhang Chi believes that the bubble of the "Seven Sisters" of the US stocks is very serious."U.S. stocks have risen for 10 years. If there is no concept speculation, it is difficult to support." Rising stock prices can be understood as a result of the capital accumulation market, and this market lacks some evidence that can persuade itself.At present, some funds on the market have evacuated U.S. stock technology stocks, but as long as they have not reached the "last moment", many funds will not be evacuated in large quantities. It is expected that this "last moment" will come soon.

Zhang Lu, a well -known technology investor in Silicon Valley and founding partner of FUSION FUND, has different views. "Some company's stock price does not really reach a very high multiple. It is the growth rate of the seven companies that we often talk about.Matthew effect is because everyone is looking forward to artificial intelligence on the one hand, and on the other hand, it is not very clear how artificial intelligence can quickly bring value in the short term.Giants, I believe that these giants have both resources and channels, and have the ability to copy and promote artificial intelligence solutions.

Disassembling US stock technology leader "AI content"

At the end of 2022, ChatGPT was born, causing a wave of generating AI. At this stage, the so -called artificial intelligence is mainly based on the genetic artificial intelligence. This is based on the development, production, sales and various applications as the core.Starting from such a background, there are many differences between the "AI content" of the "Seven Sisters of Science and Technology Stocks" in the US stocks. According to the "AI content", it can be divided into the following three categories.

The first category is chips and cloud service companies that provide AI infrastructure.

Among the chip companies, Nvidia's performance has been catalyzed in the past two or two years.In the annual report as of January 28, 2024, Nvidia's revenue increased by 126%year -on -year, and net profit increased by 581%year -on -year. In the quarter of this date, Nvidia and AI associated data centers accounted for 83%.EssenceAs of the latest quarter of April 28 this year, Nvidia's revenue increased by 262%year -on -year, and the data center business accounted for 87%.

In contrast, AMD and AI are weaker.In the second quarter of fiscal year in fiscal 2024, AMD revenue and net profit increased by 9%and 19%year -on -year, respectively. The data center business department with close relationships with AI increased the fastest quarterly revenue and increased by 115%year -on -year.It is about 48%.But compared to the Nvida, which mainly sells GPUs, a considerable part of the income of the AMD data center business department comes from the CPU.

Microsoft, Google, and Amazon can be classified as cloud manufacturers.From the perspective of cloud business, Microsoft and AI may be the strongest. The proportion of cloud business revenue in Google and Amazon is low.In addition to the cloud business, these manufacturers actually have another "main business". Although some businesses are also related to AI, it is still doubt about how much revenue growth has been driven by AI.

Among them, Google's parent company Alphabet's second quarter revenue in the second quarter of fiscal year was US $ 84.742 billion, cloud business revenue was US $ 10.347 billion, and advertising business revenue was US $ 64.616 billion, with revenue accounting for 12.2%and 76.3%, respectively.Microsoft's revenue of US $ 64.7 billion in the fiscal quarterly quarter of this year, with the revenue of the strongest intelligent cloud sector related to AI, revenue of US $ 28.5 billion, with a revenue of 44%.Amazon's net sales in the second quarter of 2024 were US $ 148 billion, of which the cloud platform AWS net sales were US $ 26.3 billion, with a revenue of 17.8%.Take Google as an example to analyze the increase in the company's revenue. Compared with the second quarter of fiscal year before ChatGPT, it is assuming that the revenue of Google Cloud business and advertising business in the second quarter of this year comes from AIThen the income increase brought by AI was about $ 12.3 billion, accounting for about 14%of revenue in the second quarter of this year.

It is worth noting that Amazon's business is still e -commerce. The net sales of e -commerce business in the latest quarter was US $ 55.39 billion, which was significantly higher than the cloud business.Other businesses in Microsoft and Google are related to AI. For example, Google's positioning forward -looking product development is related to the "other betting" business of venture capital, but the scale of this business revenue has not been climate.Microsoft's productive forces and business processes and personal computing business are also related to AI, but the driving force for income needs to be observed.

The second category is that AI companies, AI has a significant driving effect on the Internet advertising business.

As a social media giant, Meta's most important income comes from advertising.In the second quarter of 2024, Meta revenue was US $ 39.071 billion, and its APP series revenue was US $ 38.718 billion, of which advertising revenue was US $ 38.329 billion, and advertising revenue increased by 21.7%year -on -year.Meta also has a $ 353 million income from Reality Labs. The business includes VR and AR products, which are related to AI landing applications, but the scale of this business has not become a climate.

Seven sisters of technology stocks also have the third type of company, that is, Apple, which is relatively special.In the fiscal quarter of June 29, Apple's revenue was US $ 85.8 billion, of which the iPhone and other hardware sales revenue was US $ 61.564 billion, with hardware -related service departments revenue of US $ 24.213 billion.AI has not yet brought sufficient direct changes to Apple's financial report data. The industry mainly watched whether the AI ​​function is to drive hardware sales, and it is expected that the Apple Intelligence intelligent system may turn to charge in the future.

On the whole, AI mainly drives the hardware sales of U.S. -headed chip manufacturers, bringing a certain increase in cloud computing business to cloud manufacturers and improving advertising and other businesses.In addition to obvious performance of AI chip companies such as Nvidia, AI has limited pulling some non -cloud businesses in cloud manufacturers.

In Qu Shaojie's view, artificial intelligence companies can be divided into three different roles: chip companies, model companies, and application companies, and AI development can be divided into three different stages: the development stage of large models of AI models, AI spread to vertical fields, spreading to vertical fieldsPhase, AI application explosion stage."It can be judged that the development of AI is still in the first stage. The performance of chip manufacturers is good, and it is basically the company with the largest stock price increase."

AI content is somewhat to observe whether there is a dimension of the US stock "seven sisters of technology stocks". Another dimension is to see if the capital expenditure of these seven leading companies is synchronized with the changes in income and profits.However, the greater the gap between each other, the deeper the foam.

From the perspective of capital expenditure, Google's parent company Alphabet purchased technical infrastructure capital expenditures in the second quarter of fiscal year in fiscal 2024. This expenditure is expected to be higher than last year. This year, the company's capital expenditure every quarter is expected to be no less than $ 12 billion in $ 12 billion.; META is expected to spend in 2024 to reach 37 billion to 40 billion U.S. dollars, and capital expenditures will increase significantly next year; Microsoft's in the latest quarterly capital expenditure will reach US $ 19.652 billion; Apple said that the company has been investing in AI and machine learning.Increase year by year.Amazon's capital expenditure in the first half of this year is US $ 30.5 billion and is expected to have a higher expenditure in the second half of the year.In the first half of this year, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta's capital expenditure increased by 50%, with a total of more than 100 billion U.S. dollars, reaching a record high.

From the perspective of performance, the growth rate of giants that increase capital expenditure are not synchronized.Meta's net profit in the second quarter increased by 73%year -on -year; Google's parent company Alphabet's second quarter net profit increased by 29%year -on -year; Microsoft's net profit increased by 10%year -on -year in the latest fiscal quarter at the end of June this year.The business of the business quarterly was 28.5 billion US dollars, which was lower than the market expectations of US $ 28.7 billion; Amazon's net profit in the second quarter increased by 101%year -on -year. AI -related AWS business revenue was US $ 26.281 billion, which was higher than the market expectations of US $ 26 billion.However, due to the growth of fixed asset expenditures, the profit margin of AWS's business decreased by 2 percentage points to 36%.

Intel has even tasted the "bitter fruit", which has tasted the increase in capital expenditure and the performance cannot be boosted in time.Intel's net loss in the second quarter of fiscal year in 2024, the management stated that the quarterly profitability was lower than the expected part of the reason for the company's decision to speed up the production of Ultra AI CPUs.Another technology giant seems to accept the fact that capital expenditure cannot be fed back in time.Alphabet executives have explained after the financial report conference, including land purchase, construction data centers and financial leasing. The realization of these projects may take 15 years or even longer.

From the perspective of the business structure and capital expenditure of the U.S. -stock technology giant, the reshaping of these companies' business is likely to have just begun. At present, increasing capital expenditure is based on a more forward -looking plan.Whether capital expenditure can be transformed into income in the future will be a key to whether these giants can maintain high stock prices.

Will the foam rupture?

Can the stock price of the seven sisters of technology stocks maintain a rise?Some market analysts believe that not only depends not only on the operating performance of these technology companies, but also considering market sentiment and global capital flow.And if considering the flow of market sentiment and capital, the high valuation of this wave of technology stocks may be unavoidable.

Zhang Chi told reporters that behind the concentration of US stocks is the mentality of stabilizing the employer, and the risk of funds in small stocks is higher.And the investor investment in the large project also has the possibility of "scattered".If the US dollar rate cuts and global funds leave the United States, it is expected to speed up the stock price of these technology giants.

After the recent recovery of the stock price of US stock technology stocks, some market participants judged that market fluctuations may be greater in the second half of the year.Qu Shaojie judged that the market's expectations for the market's interest rate cuts continued to heat up. If the United States enters a new round of interest rate cuts, the US bond market will be affected, and some funds may be withdrawn from the US bond marketIt may switch to growth stocks, and some may find high dividend assets.Market volatility may be greater than the first half of the year.The uncertain factors are that the US election has not ended. After the new president came to power, the impact of the industrial policy on the market was uncertain. In addition, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cuts were yet to be implemented.

Zhang Chi believes that the seven sisters of science and technology stocks have recently experienced a sharp decline. In addition to the unsatisfactory employment data of the United States, it is also related to the market that the AI ​​stock should not be fried too high.The market has gradually discovered that AI can realize less income. The main application scenarios are still chatting and painting. What kind of application can AI in the industrial field is not clear.After more than a year of development, AI has not changed too much manufacturing. It has no great effect on the improvement of industrial volume and has limited help to GDP growth.

Looking back, the bells need to be tied to the bell. To achieve the management of foam, it still needs to maintain technological progress through continuous research and development investment.First of all, only when the speed of innovation keeps with the expected speculation, the bubble will not break.Secondly, through a smooth transition from the overheating economy, it can achieve "soft landing" to stabilize market emotions.Any violent market emotional change may cause the bubble or collapse of the chain reaction, because Nasdaq has reached a critical threshold after a few rounds of technical hype.Third, it can maintain sufficient liquidity level by improving interest rates.If one or more of these three conditions are not met, the current NASDAC bubble may break.

Zhang Lu believes that when evaluating investment projects, more and more concerned about whether it can establish business associations with large enterprises and provide value. Market verification is deemed to be one of the measures. The focus is on the quality and sustainability of customers who actually purchase products.Essence"The correlation between manpower cost and operating efficiency is weakening, and the application of large models may lead to automation of certain work. The key is to deeply understand the business system of the target market." We are more valued. In fact, it is still expanding in the original business of large companies.Space, resources, and channels, not necessarily its so -called technical reserves."