The Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Cinda Securities released a research report stating that in the context of accelerating the lamination of coal layout, the great increase in the investment of resources and ton coal, the rise of economic development rigid costs is expected to support the price center of coal prices to maintain an upward trend and superimposed coal centralThe injecting work of state -owned enterprise assets has been opened, which has become more and more highlighted by high -quality coal companies' profitability and growth.At present, the coal plate has high performance, high cash, and high -scoring attributes. It is superimposed in the industry's high prosperity, long cycle, high barriers, and low valuation and primary and secondary valuations.वाराणसी वित्तीय प्रबंधन

The main point of view of Cinda Securities is as follows:

The main characteristics of the coal industry in 2023:

The first is that the increase in production and insurance is still the main tone of coal work this year, which also indirectly reflects that the current situation of coal supply and demand in my country has not yet improved.Second, the growth rate of raw coal production was significantly narrowed from the previous month. The utilization rate of coal mine capacity remained high but it did not continue to increase rapidly compared with 2022. The tightening of coal mine safety supervision became tight and rigorous.The constraint is prominent.Third, the global coal trade pattern phase loose and structural adjustment, the continuation of my country's imported coal zero -tariff policy, which led to a significant increase in coal imports, alleviating the pressure of coal supply to a large extent, also shows that the domestic output gap is large.Fourth, the price of coal prices at home and abroad is adjusted. The price center of power coal and coking coal fell year -on -year at a high premium of panic -based snapped up, but it still operated relatively high.Fifth, in the context of economic weak recovery, the demand for coal and chemical coal has performed well, driving the overall consumption of coal to grow steadily, and the guarantee effect of coal bottoming is still the same.Sixth, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the coal selection industry has slowed down significantly, and the scale of mining in construction is also relatively stable. It is urgent to start a new round of production capacity cycle to meet the medium and long -term coal gap.

Supply side: From January to October 2023, the yield of raw coal in my country was 3.83 billion tons, an increase of 3.9%year-on-year, the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the same period in 2022, and the month-on-year growth rate was narrowed from the previous year.

It is worth noting that the output of raw coal of state -owned key coal mines was 1.696 billion tons, an increase of 2.3%year -on -year, and the growth rate was lower than the overall growth rate of the industry, indicating that the increase in raw coal production was more contributed by small and medium coal mines.In view of the risk of safety accidents in small and medium -sized coal mines, in the context of rigorous coal mine safety supervision, my country's coal supply side is facing the risk of further contraction.Looking forward to the coal market in 2024, the bank is expected to be tightened in the background of major coal export countries, the narrowing of imports in Europe, and Japan and South Korea, and the demand for imports in India and Southeast Asia.The amount may be flat or even slightly lower. At the same time, the domestic coal stock production capacity digging has basically reached the limit, the approved production capacity space is limited, the coal production in the central and eastern provinces has accelerated attenuation, and the production of coal mines, especially medium and medium coal mines under the high pressure of safety supervision, is limited in domestic coal.It is difficult to increase the supply significantly or even unlocked phased contraction.

The bank believes that the current increase in coal imports has greatly relieved the supply of supply to a certain extent, but the problem of insufficient effective supply in the capacity cycle is still prominent. The core contradiction is that the newly added capacity is insufficient. Although the country is expected to be in the "14th Five -Year Plan"At the end of the period or "Fifteenth Five -Year Plan", the basic characteristics of the new rhythm of coal approval were accelerated.

Demand side: From January to October 2023, the consumption of commodity coal in my country was 3.81 billion tons, an increase of 6.6%year-on-year. It was mainly concentrated in electric coal and chemical coal.

Among them, benefited from the year -on -year increase of 5.7%year -on -year thermal power generation, driving coal consumption of the power industry by 10.3%year -on -year; the capacity utilization rate of the coal chemical industry under the high level of oil prices and cost -driven coal chemical industry remained high.EssenceLooking forward to 2024, in terms of power coal, in 2024 may usher in the industrial supplementary database cycle to promote the recovery of the secondary production, stacking global El Nino caused high temperature weather to support power consumptionआगरा निवेश. At the same timeThe elasticity of electricity consumption is expected to maintain rigidity, and the problem of overlapping new energy consumption has gradually appeared, and the consumption of electric coal is expected to continue to maintain a growth trend.In terms of coking coal, due to the continued high export of infrastructure and manufacturing, the export volume of overlapping thick steel continued to be high, the negative impact of real estate downside on the demand for coking coal was greatly weakened, especially under the implementation of the stabilization of real estate and infrastructure in the series, total crude steel outputIt is expected to maintain stability. In addition, the proportion of long process in the steel industry increases and the decline in scrap ratings, coking coal, especially high -quality main coke coal as scarcity resources, is expected to continue to maintain a slight growth.It is worth noting that electric coal as the main downstream demand side of coalवाराणसी निवेश. Since 2022, the coal-to-electric loading machine has been accelerated and constructed, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the next 1-2 years, which has a strong support for the consumption of electric coal.increase.

Price end: As of November 27, in terms of power coal, the spot price center of 5500 calories of Qin and Hong Kong 5500 calories was 969 yuan/ton, and the price center of the 5500 card of the Qin and Hong Kong 5500 card was 714 yuan/ton, which was a decrease in the average price of 2022, respectively.23.6%, decreased by 1.1%.

In terms of coking coal coal, the price center of the main coking coal of Shanxi in Beijing and Tanggang was 2243 yuan/ton, and the average value of the mid -price Xinhua Shanxi coking coal long association index was 1,587 yuan/ton, which was 20.8%and 7.6%from the average price in 2022, respectively.It should be noted that in 2023, coal prices fluctuated significantly, and the price center declined significantly, but it was more normal adjustment after the global coal grabbing in Russia and Ukraine in 2022.The passage, especially at the end of May-early June, under the many factors such as high inventory of coal downstream, the significant growth of imported coal, and the concentrated selling of traders.Packing back.This even shows that domestic coal prices are confirmed at the bottom of the coal price support under rigidity and marginal costs, that is, with the dug -in of the low -cost main mining area of ​​Jin, Shaanxi and Mongolia, the pricing is affected by the high -cost existing mining area of ​​the Middle East and the Xinjiang incremental mining area where the transportation distance is far from the transportation area of ​​the transportation. The greater influence has caused my country to have economical and developing coal production capacity.

The bank predicts that in the context of the long -term confession, the dual -track system is expected to exist for a long time (similar to 2003 to 2012), and the 700+ yuan in the price range of the 5500 card of the Qin and Hong Kong 5500 card can basically be regarded as the long coal length long.At the new bottom of the coordinated price, about 800+yuan can be regarded as the new bottom of the market spot coal price, and the bottom coal price at the bottom has further improved with the amplification of the supply and demand gap.

The industry prosperity cycle & bottom coal price is established to promote the reshaping of the value of coal companies.

Based on preliminary research, my country's coal production capacity cycle is slow and long. When the inflection point of the prosperity cycle is often manifested at the same time as the continuous decline in coal consumption, the significant downward movement of the coal price center, the significant reduction in the industry's profit level, and the investment in fixed assets are at high levels.The bank believes that this round of production capacity cycle began in the supply -side reform coal de -capacity, and the situation of the supply and demand of coal is tightening. Due to the "double carbon" target strategy, corporate mining capital expenditure is not strong.As a discount, the newly -built approval of large -scale coal mines has not yet opened, resulting in the cycle of coal production capacity in this round of coal may be relatively longer. It is still in the early and middle stages of the new round of production capacity cycle and the early stages of the coal industry.

On the other hand, the valuation pricing of the current first and second -class coal market is obviously upside down, and the low valuation of the coal sector is highlighted.From the perspective of the overall high premium transaction of the Itai Company's premium and the overall high premium transaction of mining rights in Shaanxi Mongolia this year, and from the perspective of PE, dividend return, PB-ROE dimension,Large repair space (based on the perspective of reset cost, most coal enterprises have a reasonable value than the current market value of more than 110%).In general, the bank believes that the coal is still in the prosperity cycle in the next 3-5 years, and the high-quality coal company still has the attributes of high barriers, high cash, high dividends, high dividends and low valuations., End with both investment offensive and defensive, it is recommended to actively allocate dips.

Investment recommendations: Combined with the bank's research and judgment of the energy production and energy cycle, the bank believes that under the situation of the increase in coal production and guarantee of the country, the tightening of coal supply and tightening the situation may continue to continue the entire "fourteenth five" and even the "fifteenth five". New planning and construction of a number of high -quality production capacity to ensure the demand for energy coal in my country for medium- and long -term energy.In the context of the acceleration of the coal layout, the investment of resource fees and ton coal investment, the rise of the rigid cost of economic development is expected to support the central upward trend of the coal price center.Highly certainty with growth.At present, the coal plate has high performance, high cash, and high -scoring attributes. It is superimposed in the industry's high prosperity, long cycle, high barriers, and low valuation and primary and secondary valuations.

The bank continues to comprehensively look at the multi -coal sector and continue to recommend attention to the historic configuration opportunities of coal.Focus on the focus from bottom to top:

First, Yankuang Energy (600188.SH), Guanghui Energy (600256.SH), Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH), etc.

Second, the central reform policy promotes the restructuring of the asset value to increase the space of coal central enterprises India (601088.SH), China Coal Energy (601898.SH), New Energy (601918.SH), etc.

Third, high -quality metallurgical coal companies with special scarcity of global resources (601666.SH), Huaibei Mining (600985.SH), Jianan Ringneng (601699.SH), etc.

Fourth, it is recommended to pay attention to the orchid innovation (600123.SH), Huayang (600348.SH), etc., as well as related opportunities in the field of coal production and construction in the new round of coal production and construction, such as the worldTechnology (600582.SH), Tianma Zhikong (688570.SH), etc.

Risk factors: changes in energy policy at home and abroad have a short -term impact; macroeconomic stalls or recovery at home and abroad are not as good as expected; major coal safety accident risks occur; extreme weather disturbances are demand for electricity coal; uncertain effects brought by geopolitical conflicts.