From 2021 to 2023, the top three industries in CITIC's first-level industry were coal, petroleum petrochemical, and non-ferrous metals, which rose 93%, 16%, and 13.6%, respectively.That is, the top three industries in the increase are all overstream resources.During the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 34%. In comparison, the excess benefits of resource products were very prominent.Data from Wind 2021-2023

"The coal industry has risen for 5 years. What is the driving force at the bottom, can it last?", "Gold has risen so much, can you get in the car?" In this issue, we are fortunate to invite the cycle flag bearer of the Wanjia Fund.Ye Yong, share the investment logic of resource products and market views in 2024 for your reference.

Introduction to this issue

11 years of research and investment experience, of which 9 years of investment experience;

Fund managers of funds such as Wanjia Double Engine.

Resource products ushered in a 10 -year big cycle inflection point

Q1: You are the earliest batch of fund managers who are optimistic about resource products. How did you make this judgment?

Ye Yong: Three years ago, at the beginning of 2021, the coal price broke 1,000 yuan/ton for the first time when the coal price welcomed the peak winter.This situation did not attract too much attention at the time, and thought it was a price fluctuation caused by a short -term supply and demand mismatch.

But in fact, this is the first time in the past 10 years to break through 1000. As an old cycle researcher, I am very sensitive to this signal, so I started to go to the reasons behind in -depth research.

At that time, there were very few people who were paying attention to this industry, and there were not many coal researchers, so I could only do industry research by myself. I found some old experts and companies in the industry for in -depth research.After the investigation, after careful analysis, we got a strategic judgment -the big cycle inflection point in the coal industry arrived.

Why is this?

Because after the top of the coal industry in 2012, the production capacity of nearly 10 years has been cleared. By 2020, the new production capacity has been rarely increased, but the demand is still growing.A big turning point with a long -term mismatch.

At that time, many people questioned that under the background of double carbon, the coal industry may be eliminated in the future.However, after our research, even according to the planning of double carbon, the proportion of coal accounting for one percentage point of energy consumption is one percentage point per year, and it does not affect the increase in the demand for coal.Why?Because the total energy consumption demand of society is growing, that is, the steady growth of the denominator has declined.

However, the increase in the supply side has reached the limit in 2020 (according to the situation at the time, if there is no subsequent supply, coal will be very scarce in the next few years).Therefore, we made a judgment of anti -market common sense at the time -we believe that coal prices will soon rise.In fact, the rise in coal prices is faster and higher than we expect.

After coal, we look at the entire commodity industry horizontally. Whether it is iron ore, copper, crude oil, or other resource products, the production capacity cycle basically bottoms out, and we have ushered in a long -term inflection point.

Therefore, we have made a strategic judgment on the entire commodity industry -the big cycle turning point of the commodity has reached. In the past 10 years, the price trend of commodities must be shocked.

Q2: You mentioned that this cycle change may be 10 years. Why is it so long?

Ye Yong: The reason for the long time is that the capacity cycle of coal is determined by its capital expenditure cycle.The capital expenditure cycle is long enough, so its production capacity cycle and related price cycle are long.To put it simply, a new ore is opened, whether it is coal, potassium fertilizer, iron ore, or other ore, from the beginning of exploration, investment, to the final complete production, under the smooth process, the time required for the time, the required time requiredAt least 8 years.Such a rhythm of the launch of the capacity leads to the price cycle of the commodity, once it goes up or down, it will be long.

For long -term trend, the demand decisions determine short -term fluctuations

Q3: There is a question on the market -the global economy is relatively weak, will it be necessary?It makes it difficult to get up to the price of upstream resource products. What do you think about this?

Ye Yong: This view is a common sense in the past, but we think this common sense should be a quotation marks, and its formation has historic reasons.But at this time, we think this framework needs to make appropriate amendments.

Three years ago, the large logic of coal supply had come out. Many people did not believe that the big logic of demand now came out, but there were not many people who believed it.In this regard, I want to share it, my view of optimistic demand for goods.

Commodities are all priced in the world. Globally, there are three positive factors in the demand for goods.

First, the demand in the United States is growing.The United States is promoting the return of manufacturing and refinancing. In the process, fixed asset investment is growing rapidly.According to data, the construction expenditure of manufacturing in the United States was more than 70 billion US dollars in 2021. By 2023, it has become more than 200 billion US dollars, and it has risen quickly.These new investment will inevitably have a pull on the upstream resource products.

Second, the demand of emerging countries is growing.In undertaking the transfer of low -end production capacity and the infrastructure of modern industries, the two processes will inevitably bring a growth in the demand for resource products.Take India as an example. Last year, its GDP growth was only 7.6%, but the consumption of coal increased by 14%year -on -year, which shows that its economic development is more focused on industrial and infrastructure construction.

In addition, emerging countries still have demographic dividends.For example, adding up South Asia and Southeast Asia, it accounts for 1/4 of the global population, but the consumption of copper now only accounts for 10%of the world. The per capita consumption is still very low, and there is a lot of room for growth.With the development of industrialization, the consumption of per capita resources in the future is expected to increase significantly, which will form a favorable support for demand.

Third, domestic resource consumption is not completely linked to economic growth.Last year we exported steel close to 100 million tons.If these steels are used in the domestic real estate industry, the pulling of GDP is great.Now it has become exports, and the consumed upstream resources (power, coal, iron ore) have not changed, but the contribution to domestic GDP has become very small.The changes in this structure can not simply derive the demand for resource products with economic growth.Therefore, although the growth of GDP is slowing down, it does not mean that the consumption of resource products is decreasing.

So based on these three reasons, I think the demand for global resource products is not so bad.

Q4: Which one do you think of supply and demand, which one will have a greater impact on resource products?

Ye Yong: From the perspective of common sense, everyone generally believes that demand is more dominated by commodity prices, but from the perspective of long -term trends, the supply side represented by the production capacity cycle can determine the long -term trend. This is an anti -common knowledge understanding.

We review the history of the production capacity cycle of the commodity commodity in the past 120 years. You will find that the change of its cycle is very regular. Generally speakingCommodity cycle.

In the large cycle of prices, even when the global depression is encountered, it does not cause the price of commodity prices to turn into a decline cycle, but it will often skyrocket.

So summarizing the history of the past, we will find that the production capacity cycle is dominant. As long as the capacity cycle is up, the price generally rises.It is just that when the demand is particularly good, the price increase is even more fierce. When the demand is poor, the rise may be soothing.That is, long -term supply decisions, short -term demand determines fluctuations.

Investment logic of gold and coal

Q5: In 2023, gold rose very well. What is the investment logic of gold?Can it continue in 2024?

Ye Yong: There are three core factors affecting the price of gold.

First, in the long run, gold is an anchor that measures inflation and credit currencies.From the development of human society and the attitude of human society to credit currency, the price of gold has been determined, and it will always rise in the long run.

Second, from the perspective of the mid -term rhythm, the actual interest rate of the United States, the Fed's interest rate hike policy, and the relatively strong and weak U.S. economy will have a greater impact on the mid -term price of gold prices.

Third, the turmoil of the international monetary system is also very important for the rise of gold.For example, after the Bretton Forest system collapsed, gold and the US dollar decoupled, and the 12 -year -old gold rose 26 times as if the off -the -run Mustang.At present, although it will not cause such a large turmoil, in the case of the US dollar currency system and US dollar credit, there will be a lot of funds to buy physical gold to avoid risks.

Q6: You can help us review the trend of the coal industry in the past three years, as well as sharing views and views on investment in the coal industry in 2024.

Ye Yong: The trend of coal stocks in the past three years has a high degree of correlation with the fundamentals of the coal industry.Kanpur Stock

2021 is a year when the fundamental reversal of the coal industry is reversed. Coal prices have skyrocketed, which will bring surge in performance and soaring stock prices.But at that time, everyone thought that this was only a short -term mismatch and unsustainable, so it was sold at a high point, resulting in a large fluctuation of the plate.Jaipur Investment

But in fact, in 2022 after adjustment, it is another year with a particularly good performance. From the horizontal comparison, it is one of the few industries that maintain tough performance growth.So the coal sector recorded another good increase at that time.

In 2023, the performance of coal companies did not increase, and some even declined. Why can stocks rise?I think 2023 is the first year of the valuation of coal stocks.Because everyone finds that its periodicity is getting weaker, ROE and net profit levels continue to be at a high level, and it has not fallen. At this time, the market considers it to give it valuation.

In the past 10 years, everyone will have bias for cyclical stocks.Because at that time in the downlink cycle of goods, cycle stocks had only a decline and rebound, so resource stocks were difficult to do, and transactions were very difficult.However, in the past two years, everyone found that the coal stocks seem to have a particularly good experience. The root cause is that the commodity cycle has ushered in a large inflection point, entering the uplink cycle.In this uplink cycle, it will last for many years in the future.

There must

Q7: The new product you managed by Wanjia Trend is being released (Class A code 018999, Class C 019000). Can you talk about your investment framework in combination with new products?

Ye Yong: Stock investment and complexity are to deal with two problemsJaipur Investment. One is the problem of choice of Niu Xiong, and the other is the issue of style selection.

First of all, how to set the time to choose?The fluctuations of A-shares are about 2-3 years and a cycle, which has a high degree of correlation with the fluctuations of our inventory cycle.Generally speaking, the high point of the inventory cycle often corresponds to the high point of the stock market, and the low point often corresponds to the low point of the market. The difference between the two will not be too far.The underlying reason for this law is because we are a manufacturing economy, and the inventory cycle is highly related to the economic cycle.

When we judge the inventory cycle to bottom, we will cut from offensive to defense; when judging the economic bottom, we will shift from defense to attack.Effectively avoiding the beef and bear through the change of strategy, reducing the loss of market volatility to investment.

The second is the style selection.For the stock market, I think that the judgment style is the first, and the importance of style is greater than the industry Beta. The importance of industry Beta is greater than that of the stock Alpha.For example, the big style is not in this industry, it is difficult to have a big market. Even if the stocks in the industry are better, it may be difficult to make big money, and even lose money.This is the importance of style.

What is the style determined?It is determined by the commodity cycle mentioned earlier!

Generally speaking, when the commodity is upward, the market style is dominated by resource stocks. Most of the time, other styles will be pressed, especially the growth style.In the downturn of the product, the general growth stocks are the best, and the stocks of other styles will be pressed. The worst performance is resource stocks.

Standing at the moment, I think that in the upward cycle of the commodity, the market style is dominated by resource stocks. At this time, if I want to attack, I will choose to focus on resource stocks.

The above is my investment framework. Through two cycles of nested, to grasp the problem of choosing cow and bear selection and style of stock selection.

Q8: You emphasize the importance of the style cycle. Why?

Ye Yong: The importance of style is indeed not too much emphasized. It is a problem of big and wrong.The reason why the style cycle is so important is two reasons.

First, it has great influence.When each round of large -style period switching, the clearing of the previous style stock is very miserable.For example, in 2001 and 2002, the style of growth stocks was clear, and the S & P technology sector fell more than 85%.After the 2012 style switching, the clearing of global resource stocks is also very fierce, and many resource stocks have fallen more than 80%.

The second is that it lasts too long, nearly 10 years.Because it is determined by the commodity cycle, and a cycle of commodities can often reach 10 years.During the 10-year style cycle, you can experience 2-3 rounds of bull and bear fluctuations. For the losses caused by the fluctuations of beef and bear, you can still boil, and wait until the next bull market will hit a new high.However, if the style is wrong, it is difficult to bear the investors in the face of nearly 10 years of adjustment.

Q9: The products you managed are relatively balanced in the distribution of the industry. How do you consider this aspect?

Ye Yong: Every time the public fund is, investors may be purchased, so I hope that my net worth curve is relatively stable, so that investors who buy each point can have a better holding experience.In this way, even if you buy it, you ca n’t make money, and do n’t lose money. This is the meaning of controlling retracement.

If I want to control the retracement as much as possible, the industry must be relatively decentralized.I have basically configured configuration in coal, crude oil, oil transportation, industrial metal, and gold.Because the timing of them starts is different, maybe coal starts first, may be oil transportation, and then there may be industrial metal, the rhythm is different.After the balanced configuration, from the perspective of the stretch, my net worth is relatively balanced, and the holder's experience will be better.

Of course, the big premise of equilibrium is that I am optimistic about these industries.

Q10: Finally, please briefly introduce your views on the macro cycle of 2024 and the equity market.

Ye Yong: I think that by the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the inventory cycle has bottomed out, but because of the drag of real estate, the slope of our economy is relatively low.It may be necessary to walk for a period of time before, and then slowly recover, but no matter what, I think the direction is up.

Some stocks related to the traditional economy, including previous core assets, think that it is a bit overlooking, and the economic fundamentals have stabilized, but these stocks are still falling.By the first half of 2024, with the stabilization of the economy and going up, the market cognition and emotions will be reversed, and the fundamentals will begin to chase the fundamentals, which may bring a wave of benefits.

If the domestic macroeconomic economy is up, demand expands, the trend of goods will be very good, and commodity stocks will perform better.

If the macro economy is not very prosperous, the goods can still rise, because it is priced at the world, and the demand for global commodity is long -term optimistic, but it will rise slowly.

In terms of groups, I think that many industries may make money this year, they are positive, and they will be better than last year.But from the combination of winning rates and odds, resource stocks are relatively better choices!

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Risk reminder: The above industries are only Ye Yong, a proposed fund manager Ye Yong, focusing on the industry. From the third quarter report of its products in 2023, it is not a contract.Adjust.The past performance of the fund does not indicate its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager and the past performance achieved by other investors does not indicate its future performance, nor does it constitute the guarantee of fund performance.The securities market fluctuates due to factors such as macroeconomics, which will cause potential risks to fluctuate the level of fund income.The fund sets one year's holding period for each fund share, so investors will face the risk of unable to redeem before the holding period expires.When investors purchase funds, they should read the fund's fund contract, recruitment instructions, product information summary and other legal documents in detail to understand the basic situation of the fund.There are differences between the characteristics of the fund risk income and the product risk level in the fund legal documents. Investors shall combine their own investment purposes, periods, risk preferences, and risk tolerance of prudential decisions and bear corresponding investment risks.When purchasing agencies, the risk rating rules of the agencies shall prevail.The fund manager promises to manage and use fund assets with the principles of honesty and trustworthiness, but does not guarantee that the fund is profitable or the minimum return.Fund investment must be cautious.

Statement and risk reminder: The price of the securities market is fluctuated due to the influence of various factors such as macro and microeconomic factors, national policies, market changes, changes in industry and individual stock performance, investor risk income preferences and trading systems.The level of income generates potential fluctuations.When investors purchase funds, they should read the fund's fund contract, recruitment instructions, product information summary and other legal documents in detail to understand the basic situation of the fund and pay attention to the product risk level and appropriate matching opinions released by the company's official website in a timely manner.Due to the different risk rating methods adopted by various sales institutions, the appropriate matching opinions may be inconsistent. Investors are requested to conduct matching tests according to the rules of each sales institution when purchasing funds.There are differences between the characteristics of the fund risk income and the product risk level in the fund legal documents, and there are differences in expression due to the different reference factors. The risk rating behavior does not change the substantive risk income characteristics of the fund. Investors shall cooperate with their own investment purposes, periods, risk preferences, and risk to withstand it.Careful decision -making and bear the corresponding investment risks.The fund manager promises to manage and use fund assets with the principles of honesty and trustworthiness, but does not guarantee that the fund is profitable or the minimum return.my country's fund operation time is short and cannot reflect all stages of the stock market development.The fund has risks, and investment needs to be cautious.The past performance of the fund does not indicate its future performance. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager and the past performance of its investors do not indicate its future performance, nor does it constitute a guarantee of fund performance.